Written by Jacob Streacker
So who saw it coming? Come on, don’t be shy–raise your hand if you chose the New Orleans Saints, proud owner of an 8-8 record just a year ago, as your lead horse for the 2010 Super Bowl back in September.
Good. Now, those of you from Louisiana, put your hands back down.
If you’ve still got yours up, you’re either a clairvoyant, a liar–or someone who knows how to play the odds very, very well.
The early odds for each team’s chances at the 2011 Lombardi Trophy were released recently by betting sites all over the web–and somewhere among the 32 lines is one choice that could provide quite the lucrative return for someone with the right combination of steely resolve and relative insanity. Here are your best (and worst) options to ponder during the maddeningly long NFL off-season.
Bet on It
1. Indianapolis Colts (6-1): Here’s one bet that is for the faint of heart. The Colts are currently the odds-on favorite to become the 2010-11 champions, and for good reason; they’ve got an elite QB who’s already won, a team that’s already been there (and doesn’t have a lot of major free agents), and for the first time since their 2007 Super Bowl victory, something to prove.
2. Green Bay Packers (12-1): They may not be the most obvious pick, but you won’t get very far in the betting world by playing it safe (if you need proof, dig up the Super Bowl odds from this time last year). The Packers have a young defense, an offense that has been improving each season, and now a playoff win under their belts. Here’s the key: if you played the 2010-11 season through twelve different times, would you really be all that surprised if Aaron Rodgers stepped up and got his team a Super Bowl at least one of those times? How about if you ran it through ten times? Five? Still looking pretty good, especially when you consider that their road to the playoffs looks relatively unobstructed by a weak NFC North (more on that a bit later)–which gives them the edge over a very similar team which occupies the #3 spot.
3. Dallas Cowboys (12-1): That’s right. Those same Dallas Cowboys, the ones that had gone more years without a playoff victory than you have fingers to count, are emerging as a decent bet to hoist the Lombardi Trophy next year (especially considering the potential payout). Much like the aforementioned Packers, they’ve got an incredibly young team on both sides of the ball, a QB who looks to be hitting his peak, and a playoff victory to build from. Their chances become complicated, however, by the presence of two other legitimate threats residing in their division–a factor that has cost Dallas, New York, and Philadelphia a playoff berth apiece over the past three seasons.
4. New Orleans Saints (8-1): At first, this one seems obvious; a star-studded team fresh off its first NFL Championship is led by one of the best quarterbacks in the game…they should be a lock for at least a spot in the NFC Championship, right? Not so fast. The Saints have a staggering 28 players up for free agency this off-season, including important contributors like Scott Fujita, Chris McAllister, Lance Moore, Darren Sharper, and Pierre Thomas. And as the past two Super Bowl winners (Pittsburgh and NYG) have proved, the so-called championship hangover is a tough one to deal with. The Saints need to find a way to stay motivated and retain the overwhelming depth that was a huge part of their 2009 run.
5. New York Giants (20-1): Somewhat of a sleeper pick, the Giants should not be left out of the conversation simply because they missed the playoffs this year (just ask the team directly above them on this list). They’ve still got a solid base, and a defense that despite a highly disappointing year, at one point was among the league’s best. However, it’s really mostly the potential 20-1 payout that makes the Giants an attractive option–a warning that even the most reckless betters should probably heed.
You’ve got nothing to lose (Honorable Mention)…
1. Cincinnati Bengals (30-1): Good, experienced QB coming off of a division title.
2. Tennessee Titans (25-1): Throw out the first six games of 2009 and you’ve got a legitimate contender.
3. Denver Broncos (50-1): A mid-level team with odds more appropriate for bottom-feeders.
4. Houston Texans (35-1): Have been slowly improving each year in the shadow of a dominant Colts team.
5. St. Louis Rams (100-1) …I kid, I kid…but if it happens, I want credit.
Run Away, and Don’t Look Back
1. Minnesota Vikings (12-1): On paper, a team that came a stupid turnover away from the Super Bowl seems like a bargain at 12-1 odds. However, you’re essentially betting on two things at once here–first, for Brett Favre to defy logic once again and return to lead the Vikings for another season (otherwise you’re stuck with Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels), and second, for that team to rise above a miserable collapse and beat out a suddenly talent-laden field of NFC contenders. Save yourself a bottle or two of off-brand Tums this off-season and just enjoy the forthcoming Favre circus.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-1): As far as betting goes, the Steelers really had potential this time around. Coming off a disappointing year in which they played heartlessly and missed the playoffs, they seemed poised to grind out a playoff run completely under the radar–much to the delight of would-be gambling enthusiasts. However, it appears the betting powers that be won’t be fooled by this team the way they were by a similar performance in 2007. They’ve got a good shot at making the playoffs, but it’s not worth it for 10-1 odds–especially since they’ll have to go through Baltimore and Cincinnati. There are much better options available.
3. New England Patriots (9-1): This is a classic case of a team whose odds are inflated due to factors completely outside of football logic. For the better part of a decade, the Patriots have been the quintessential “safe bet” to make the playoffs and produce at least a decent run at the Super Bowl. However, the team (most importantly, the Quarterback and lead WR) is aging and former stars are either retiring or moving on to new homes. They’ve got a relatively easy road and will probably be back in the playoffs, but New England’s odds at surviving the AFC gauntlet are probably about half as good as your local bookie might imply. When a team has a large fan base and a recent track record for success, Vegas sees dollar signs. Don’t let fond betting memories lull you into a false sense of security here.
4. New York Jets (15-1): Every few years, the Jets show signs of life and make an improbable run at the playoffs despite the lack of any truly relevant star power–and are never heard from again. Mark Sanchez could well be poised for an outstanding career, but you don’t want to place your eggs in this basket in 2011. If this line looks tempting to you, imagine a Super Bowl in which the Jets are pitted against their cross-town counterparts. Which would you rather have–team with a veteran Quarterback, veteran coach, and Super Bowl rings already on their fingers, or the one with an overinflated ego due to a deep playoff run the previous year and a young loose cannon under center? Well, believe it or not, the obvious choice in this situation also pays 33% better.
5. Baltimore Ravens (14-1): I actually had the Ravens in the “Honorable Mention” category when I was outlining this article, but logic has to prevail eventually. It’s not that the Ravens are a bad team, and it’s not even that 14-1 odds are bad ones–in a vacuum. However, in order to win the Super Bowl, Baltimore has to make the playoffs first (and if they do, they’d better get a decent seed in this conference). That means getting through Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and–snicker
if you want–a Cleveland team that actually came on fairly strong at season’s end. If you could bet on a division, the AFC North and NFC East would be the hands-down favorites. However, as it stands, the Ravens’ geographical placement serves as a major detriment to their Super Bowl odds.
Content provided by Associated Content
Would you bet on any teams on this list?
Loading ...